Ukraine is considering shipping grain by rail through Moldova as a more secure export option than by sea, according to sources in both countries. This comes amid rising tensions and increased Russian attacks on Ukrainian shipping and port infrastructure in recent months.
Exports from Ukrainian ports by way of the Black Sea have run up against increased Russian attacks, prompting Ukraine to explore alternative export routes. A proposed rail corridor through Moldova to the Romanian port of Constanța is being discussed, with Ukraine seeking a 50% discount on the nominal freight rate.
A senior Ukrainian industry official said that Ukraine is currently gathering information on potential volumes from interested shippers, but the information-gathering process has not yet been completed. A source with Moldovan Railways said Ukraine had sought the 50% discount during discussions, while Moldova countered with a proposal for Ukraine to provide guarantees of volumes of Ukrainian grain to be transported.
The two sides are discussing a time frame and volumes of transit of Ukrainian grain through Moldova to the Romanian port of Constanța. Ukrainian estimates suggest that a working corridor could provide for 10% of the country’s exports.
The former head of Moldovan Railways, Oleg Tofilat, said that a transit rail corridor through Moldova could carry 4.5 million metric tons annually. Moldova had already provided rail transport for Ukrainian grain in 2022-2023, demonstrating the feasibility of such an arrangement.
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Moldova’s Infrastructure and Regional Development Minister, Vladimir Bolea, visited Ukraine’s adjacent Odesa Region and discussed improved rail links and expanded transit with his Ukrainian counterpart, Mykola Kalashnyk. The need for a rail route has arisen in connection with Russian attacks on the Odesa port hub.
Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi said that the ministry had lowered its grain export forecast for the 2026–27 season to 38 million–40 million metric tons from the previously expected 43 million tons, due to Russian attacks on ports. APK-Inform analysts also cut their export forecast by 8.6% to 39.4 million tons due to the export disruptions.
The damage caused by Russian attacks is significant, as Ukraine ships more than 90% of its grain exports through seaports. Agricultural products account for the largest share of Ukraine’s overall exports.
Moldovan Prime Minister Vasile Tofan said that his country should not lose the opportunity to earn millions of euros in transit revenue from Ukrainian grain cargos. He dismissed suggestions by Moldovan farm groups that the price of Ukrainian grain would undercut their own produce.
The discussions between Ukraine and Moldova are ongoing, with the two sides working to finalize the details of the proposed rail corridor, which involves regional cooperation to establish a new export route.
