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The world is large and complex. There is always something distressing going on somewhere. But, overall, global economic and geopolitical risks do not seem more elevated than they have been in recent years. In fact, some global risks appear to have diminished, and the outlook for global growth is somewhat stronger than it was earlier in the year. The world economy is expected to grow at 3.6 percent in 2017 and 3.7 percent in 2018. Developing economies are expected to grow at 4.6 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively, while advanced economies increase at 2.2 and 2.0 percent rates. Overall, the global environment doesn’t seem to be sending a strong signal for a change in U.S. interest rates.

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I believe the most likely causes of persistently low inflation are additional domestic labor market slack and falling inflation expectations. This essay will explore the causes of the latter, falling inflation expectations, and I will argue that the FOMC’s policy to remove monetary accommodation over the past few years is likely an important factor driving inflation expectations lower.

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Inflation is traditionally considered to be a great threat to the stability of the national economy since the rapid changes in the inflation rate can produce a disastrous effect on the economy. This is why it is extremely important to control inflation and prevent any significant deterioration of the situation even in such developed countries as the US. In this respect, it is worthy of mention that inflation is considered to be a serious problem in the US at the moment and the article “Fed leaves the interests rate unchanged” indicate at the fact that this problem is still relevant and as the author underlines policymakers are “not ready to declare victory on that front”.

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Finally, some argue that inflation expectations haven’t fallen, pointing to the Survey of Professional Forecasters, where inflation expectations have been solidly anchored at the Fed’s 2 percent target for years. I don’t find this survey as compelling as the data I referenced above because it is limited to a very small set of forecasters. We need to understand the expectations underlying millions of individual wage negotiations between employees and employers, which I believe are better captured by broader measures.

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See the International Monetary Fund’s October 2017 .

The following chart shows the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) measure of inflation, both headline and core, since 2006. Inflation has been consistently below our 2 percent target over the past five years and, perhaps even more surprisingly, has actually fallen this year.